How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.