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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|