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The Ashes could provide a reason to cheer, but this series will also see the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting curiosity with the average age of this side and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test team being over 30, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test squad featuring a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a process that would indeed be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, transition is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the first Test, was the team management assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the balance experiences a far greater change with two key bowlers absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Test matches entering the attack after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what new injuries the opening match may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after that match, given how tricky stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in series and a pattern of minor injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the series may witness the main four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might experience transition setting in much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but after that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it a chance for the visiting team. You can sense that train approaching, rolling round the bend, and the English team ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.